2026 will be the hottest year on record, leading scientist predicts

A leading climate scientist has predicted that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, surpassing the current high set in 2024. This forecast is driven by a combination of ongoing human-induced climate change and the anticipated onset of a strong El Niño event later this year, which typically raises global temperatures by warming the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The prediction comes from James Hansen and his colleagues at Columbia University, who argue that the warming effect will be significant enough to break the existing temperature record before the full impact of El Niño is felt in 2027. The current record, held by 2024, saw global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. While early 2026 temperatures have been slightly cooler due to the planet-cooling La Niña phase, Hansen’s team points to rising sea surface temperatures as evidence that the year will still surpass previous records. Their analysis suggests the planet is already 0.17°C warmer than in 2023, a larger increase than observed in 2024. This contrasts with other projections, such as those from Berkeley Earth and the UK Met Office, which estimate 2026 will be among the warmest years but stop short of declaring it the hottest with certainty due to inherent uncertainties in climate forecasting. The implications of a record-breaking 2026 are significant, as it would underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing influence of natural climate variability like El Niño on top of human-driven changes. The predicted “super El Niño” could exacerbate extreme weather events worldwide, including wildfires, droughts, and floods, as already seen in early 2026 with extensive wildfires in Patagonia, Argentina. Scientists emphasize that while the precise ranking of annual temperatures remains uncertain, the overall trend points to a rapidly warming planet with serious environmental and societal consequences.