Almost 2bn to be affected by metabolic liver disease by 2050, study suggests

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is projected to affect 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, according to a recent global study. Currently, about 1.3 billion people, or roughly one in six globally, live with MASLD—a 143% increase since 1990 when the condition affected approximately 500 million. The rise is primarily driven by population growth, increasing rates of obesity, and high blood sugar levels, which are closely linked to type 2 diabetes. The study, published in Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology and based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), highlights that MASLD prevalence has grown significantly across all regions. Men are more commonly affected than women, with the highest rates observed in older adults aged 80 to 84. However, the largest absolute numbers of cases occur in younger adults, particularly men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59. Certain regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East, experience disproportionately higher rates compared to the global average. Western countries have also seen notable increases, with the UK reporting a 33% rise in prevalence since 1990, the largest in Western Europe, alongside a 30% increase in Australia and 22% in the United States. Despite the growing number of MASLD cases, the overall health impact measured by years lost due to illness or death has remained stable, suggesting improvements in treatment and management. Most new cases are in the early stages of the disease, which can often be managed effectively through lifestyle changes such as weight loss and blood sugar control. However, the expanding prevalence poses a significant public health concern, as many individuals remain at risk of developing severe complications like liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in the future. The findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced preventive measures and healthcare strategies to address the metabolic factors fueling this global epidemic.