Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Niño

Federal scientists have forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, predicting eight to 14 named storms, with one to three expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3 to 5). The outlook attributes the milder season to a developing El Niño weather pattern in the central and eastern Pacific, which typically suppresses Atlantic storm formation. The season, running from June 1 to November 30, carries a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of near normal, and a 10% chance of above normal activity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While the Atlantic is expected to experience fewer and less intense storms, the eastern and central Pacific basins are forecast to see heightened hurricane activity due to the same El Niño conditions. NOAA predicts 15 to 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific, with nine to 14 hurricanes and five to nine major hurricanes, nearly doubling the usual activity. This elevated risk poses increased threats to populations in Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii, where tropical cyclones are more likely to develop. The forecast comes amid concerns about the United States’ preparedness for hurricane season. Experts warn that staffing cuts during the Trump administration have weakened the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA’s capacity to collect critical data through satellites and weather balloons. This reduction in resources has stretched personnel thin and degraded the country’s ability to accurately forecast extreme weather events fueled by climate change. As a result, officials caution that the U.S. may face challenges in responding effectively to storms despite a forecast for a milder Atlantic season. The interplay of warm ocean temperatures and El Niño conditions creates a complex forecasting environment, underscoring the importance of robust monitoring and preparedness efforts. While the Atlantic may see fewer storms, the increased activity in the Pacific highlights the shifting risks posed by global climate patterns in 2026.