Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Niño

Federal scientists have forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Of these, one to three are expected to reach major hurricane status (Category 3 to 5), with winds exceeding 111 mph. The forecast attributes the milder outlook primarily to a developing El Niño weather pattern in the central and eastern Pacific, which typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic. The season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. In addition to the major hurricanes, forecasters expect three to six Category 1 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or more. While the Atlantic is expected to be quieter, the eastern and central Pacific regions are likely to see increased tropical activity, with NOAA predicting 15 to 22 named storms and up to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific alone. This heightened activity raises concerns for coastal populations in Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii. The forecast comes amid growing concerns about the United States’ preparedness for extreme weather events. Experts warn that staffing cuts during the Trump administration have weakened the National Weather Service’s (NWS) capacity to monitor and forecast storms effectively. Reductions in satellite and balloon launches, essential for data collection, have stretched NOAA and NWS personnel thin, potentially compromising the accuracy and timeliness of hurricane predictions. This diminished capability poses risks as climate change continues to influence the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Overall, while the Atlantic hurricane season may be less active than average, the increased activity in the Pacific and ongoing challenges in weather forecasting infrastructure underscore the need for vigilance and improved preparedness strategies. The evolving climate dynamics and resource constraints highlight the complexities facing meteorologists and emergency management agencies as they prepare for the 2026 hurricane season.