COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans 

COP31 is set against the backdrop of what the International Energy Agency’s head Fatih Birol has described as the “biggest energy crisis in history,” driven largely by disruptions in oil and gas supplies amid geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war. The summit faces urgent pressure to address global fossil fuel dependency, energy affordability, and access, particularly as volatile fossil fuel markets exacerbate economic and social challenges worldwide. The event aims to move beyond policy frameworks established at previous conferences toward concrete national transition plans that reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Previous COP meetings, including the last one in Belém, laid important groundwork by creating mechanisms such as the Global Implementation Accelerator, the Just Transition Mechanism, and climate finance programmes, alongside roadmaps for forest protection and fossil fuel phase-out. However, experts emphasize that COP31 must focus on delivering tangible outcomes, especially by encouraging countries to develop and implement clear fossil fuel transition strategies. The momentum gained from the first international conference on fossil fuel transition held in Colombia earlier this year adds impetus to these efforts. The urgency of COP31 is underscored by the disproportionate impact of fossil fuel volatility on low-income, fossil fuel-importing countries, where over three-quarters of the global population reside. High energy prices in these nations drive up food costs, deepen inflation, increase political instability, and worsen debt burdens, effectively turning the energy crisis into a broader development crisis. Addressing these intertwined challenges is critical for ensuring a just and equitable transition to sustainable energy systems that support global economic stability and social well-being. In this context, COP31’s success will hinge on its ability to galvanize international cooperation and secure commitments that translate into actionable national roadmaps. These plans are essential not only for mitigating climate change but also for safeguarding energy security and affordability, particularly for vulnerable populations in developing countries. The summit’s outcomes will have significant implications for the global transition to cleaner energy and the broader fight against climate change.