Depleted but dangerous, Hamas is holding its fire against Israel. The quiet may not last

Armed members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad greet people gathering for Eid al-Fitr prayers in Gaza City, Friday, March 20, 2026. (AP/Abdel Kareem Hana) When US President Donald Trump unveiled his 20-point plan to end the conflict eight months ago, disarming Hamas was one of its central pillars, paving the way for an International Stabilization Force tasked with securing the Strip during a transitional postwar period. But footage circulating online since the ceasefire took effect in October appears to show the terror group reasserting its presence across parts of Gaza, with armed operatives patrolling streets, staging public displays of force and seeking to demonstrate that its military wing remains intact. At the same time, Hamas has refrained from launching any significant attacks on Israeli territory since the ceasefire came into force. Rockets are fired from the Gaza Strip toward Israel over destroyed buildings, October 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Dahman) The relative quiet has persisted even as the IDF continues to carry out near-daily strikes in Gaza, which Israel says are aimed at thwarting threats to its forces or responding to violations of the truce. Hamas’s last known attempt to fire a rocket at Israel came in January, when the IDF reported detecting a failed launch from the Gaza City area. Unable, not unwilling According to Samuel Ben-Ur, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the absence of rocket fire should not be mistaken for a change in Hamas’s intentions. “If they could carry out another October 7-style attack today, they would,” Ben-Ur said. “Their strategy is to inflict as much pain as possible on Israel… and force it into a concession.” Instead, he argued, Hamas’s restraint is more likely a reflection of its current capabilities than its ambitions. That position is backed up , who said in March that while the terror group has likely been attempting to rearm amid the ongoing ceasefire, it is nowhere near attaining the strength it had before the war, when it and other terror organizations would regularly fire rockets from the Gaza Strip at southern Israel. The IDF assessed that Hamas’s efforts to rearm were “very limited,” largely because the group no longer has access to its weapons-smuggling routes, primarily across the Egyptian border. Rockets seized from the Hamas terror group are presented for display to foreign journalists and others on the first anniversary of the group’s October 7, 2023, attack. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit) As a result, Hamas has resorted to even more clandestine means.