El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for the likelihood of a new global temperature record within the next five years, citing the anticipated return of the El Niño weather pattern. The agency now estimates an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, up from 80% in last year’s prediction. Global average temperatures in 2024 reached 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, influenced by the previous El Niño event that amplified human-driven warming. Meteorologists expect El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, to begin developing as early as mid-2026. Some forecasts suggest this upcoming El Niño could be particularly strong, potentially driving 2027 to become the hottest year ever recorded. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, emphasized that the onset of El Niño in the latter half of 2026 significantly increases the odds of 2027 setting a new temperature record. The return of El Niño carries broader implications for global climate extremes. The WMO warns that a strong El Niño could exacerbate severe weather events worldwide, including intensified wildfires and droughts in some regions, alongside increased storms and flooding in others. This natural climate cycle, combined with ongoing human-induced warming, poses heightened risks to ecosystems, agriculture, and communities vulnerable to climate variability. The WMO’s updated forecast underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and improving resilience to extreme weather. As global temperatures continue to rise, the interplay between natural phenomena like El Niño and anthropogenic factors will shape the severity and frequency of climate impacts in the coming decade.