India has splurged billions on metro trains. But where are the commuters?

India has invested over $26 billion in expanding metro rail networks across nearly two dozen cities, aiming to improve urban mobility and reduce congestion. Despite this massive infrastructure push, many metro lines are experiencing significantly lower ridership than projected. For example, Mumbai’s Aqua Line, a 33.5km underground corridor connecting key business districts, was expected to carry 1.5 million passengers daily but currently operates at roughly a tenth of that figure. Similar trends of underutilization are evident in several other cities, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these investments. The rapid expansion of India’s metro network has seen its total length grow from under 300km to more than 1,000km within a decade, with average daily ridership increasing from three million to over 11 million. However, these aggregate figures obscure the reality that most metro systems fall far short of their initial ridership forecasts. A 2023 report from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi found actual ridership across corridors to be only 25-35% of projections. In some tier-3 cities like Kanpur, usage was as low as 2% of expected levels, while cities such as Chennai, Pune, and Nagpur also reported ridership between 20-50% of estimates. Delhi remains an outlier, with ridership slightly exceeding projections, though this is partly attributed to counting interchanges as separate trips. Experts point to several factors behind the low metro usage despite overcrowded and inefficient alternative public transport options. One key issue is the relatively high cost of metro travel, which is often unaffordable for lower-income workers compared to global benchmarks. Additionally, metro lines may not adequately serve the areas where demand is highest or provide convenient first- and last-mile connectivity. The mismatch between infrastructure development and commuter needs highlights challenges in urban transport planning and raises questions about the long-term sustainability and return on investment of India’s metro expansion strategy.