Jason Kenney warns Alberta independence movement could become ‘a real factor’ in politics

Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney has cautioned that the province’s independence movement, while unlikely to succeed outright, could become a significant and disruptive force in Canadian politics if it gains enough support. Speaking at The Globe and Mail’s Intersect 2026 conference in Toronto, Kenney warned that even a minority backing for secession in a potential referendum could entrench separatism as a lasting political issue. He drew parallels to Quebec’s decades-long sovereignty debate, which he described as a damaging “political civil war” that harmed its economy. Kenney, a former federal cabinet minister under Stephen Harper, has positioned himself as a prominent federalist voice amid growing separatist sentiment in Alberta. Over the past year, he has publicly criticized the independence movement and plans to debate an Alberta lawyer advocating for secession. Despite his opposition, Premier Danielle Smith continues to promote the idea of a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” and recent changes to provincial direct-democracy laws have facilitated the possibility of an independence referendum. The separatist movement has seen fluctuating support, generally between 20 and 30 percent, but has been energized recently by factors such as ongoing Liberal federal governance, Smith’s political agenda, and external provocations like former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “51st state” remarks. The movement gained momentum following the introduction of a citizen-initiated referendum, announced shortly after the 2025 federal election, which allowed separatists to begin collecting signatures in early 2026. They claim to have met the required threshold of nearly 178,000 signatures to trigger a referendum. Smith’s rise to power in 2022, succeeding Kenney as leader of the United Conservative Party, was fueled by widespread frustration stemming from pandemic-era policies and a broader sense of alienation from Ottawa. Kenney’s warning underscores the potential for Alberta’s separatist movement to deepen divisions within Canada’s federal system, posing a serious challenge to national unity. If the movement secures a significant minority in a referendum, it could transform from a fringe cause into a persistent political factor, complicating federal-provincial relations and the country’s political landscape for years to come.