Juneau can’t stop the floods, but it’s learning to see them coming

Two years ago, John Lowrey woke to the roar of water surging into his home. The 65-year-old retiree and father of five rushed toward his basement just as a 3-foot wave slammed through the door, tearing it from its hinges. Water crashed through his bay windows, drowning the family’s piano and heirloom cedar chests. His 29-year-old daughter piled family photos on a bed until it started floating. The inundation ruined documents, appliances, and insulation, and repairs cost the family $150,000. “We lost everything,” Lowrey said. What Lowrey didn’t know then was that the flood that wrecked his home would return the following summer. And the summer after that. Alaska is warming at two to three times the global average, and the changing climate poses a particular risk to Juneau. Since 2011, meltwater and rain collecting in a basin beside the Mendenhall Glacier have periodically flooded neighborhoods along the Mendenhall River. For more than a decade, the floods remained relatively small. Then, in 2023, the river reached a record high of nearly 15 feet. New benchmarks followed in 2024 and again in 2025. Another flood came last month. Scientists expect them to return annually for decades to come. That has forced Juneau to confront a problem that communities around the world are increasingly facing: How do you prepare for a natural disaster when you know it will come back? The Mendenhall Glacier overlooks a residential neighborhood in Juneau. Marina Lopes Juneau is beginning to find an answer. Scientists and local officials are putting increasingly sophisticated flood forecasts directly into the hands of residents. The online dashboard rolled out in 2025 translates complex glacier and hydrology data into information they can use to decide when to protect their belongings, prepare for rising water, or leave their homes. The forecasts are changing how Juneau responds to the threat . The approach could offer lessons far beyond Alaska as communities elsewhere contend with floods, hurricanes, and other climate-driven disasters that strike again and again. Juneau sits amid the mountains and wilderness that define much of southeast Alaska. Although it is the state capital and home to 32,000 people, it is accessible only . Lowrey’s family has deep roots in this rugged landscape. He recounted his story standing beneath the hide of a brown bear his grandfather shot decades ago. Still, the flood traumatized his family. His daughter tears up thinking about it.  “We didn’t know anything,” he said. “We didn’t understand the nature of the basin.