Libya’s False Peace

Libya remains deeply divided with competing factions undermining efforts toward national stability and peace. The country’s fragile power structures have been further destabilized by external actors, notably Turkey, which has shifted its alliances in pursuit of strategic gains. Turkey’s 2019 maritime deal with Libya, granting Ankara significant regional influence, has led it to court the eastern-based Haftar family in 2025, moving away from its previous support for Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba’s government in Tripoli. This realignment has intensified Libya’s internal rivalries and complicated the already tenuous balance of power. The collapse of a UN-backed election initiative in 2021 marked a turning point, with international actors abandoning democracy promotion in favor of transactional approaches. The appointment of a Haftar loyalist to lead Libya’s National Oil Corporation in 2022 exacerbated factional competition over the country’s vast oil revenues. Both the Haftar and Dabaiba camps have sought control over state resources, including the central bank, often channeling funds into prestige projects that benefit cronies rather than addressing public needs. This economic fragmentation has entrenched corruption and hindered governance. The Haftar faction controls a larger portion of Libya, including key oil fields and export terminals, attracting support from foreign governments like the United Arab Emirates, which have prioritized strategic alliances over reform. The power-sharing arrangements intended to stabilize Libya’s institutions have instead accelerated their breakdown. In 2024, tensions peaked when the Dabaiba government attempted to replace the central bank governor with a loyalist, prompting the Haftar forces to halt most oil exports for over six weeks. This blockade cost Libya nearly $3 billion, and the muted international response signaled tacit acceptance of such coercive tactics, raising concerns about the prospects for lasting peace and economic recovery. Libya’s ongoing crisis underscores the challenges of external interference, internal factionalism, and weakened institutions. Without a renewed commitment from both domestic actors and the international community to support inclusive governance and economic transparency, the country risks prolonged instability and further erosion of state authority.