November Weather Forecast: Super El Niño Takes Control as Winter 2026/2027 Approaches

The Super El Niño in the Pacific keeps strengthening, forecast to slowly peak around late December, on track to become the strongest El Niño in over 70 years. Its impact is now clearly visible in the atmosphere, with a reshaped circulation that is starting to drive the weather patterns over North America. November forecasts already look similar to past strong El Niño events over North America. But Europe is starting the month with a pattern completely opposite to what we saw in past El Niño Novembers. In this article, I break down the latest El Niño data and the November forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe, from early to late November. Then we look at how the seasonal models El Niño pattern carrying into Winter 2026/2027, with a southern storm track and colder conditions spreading across the southern and central United States.   Super El Niño Is Already Reshaping the Tropical Atmosphere   The biggest weather driver in 2026/2027 will be the Super El Niño event, growing since spring. This is a warm temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, creating major changes in global pressure and wind patterns. The image below shows the usual changes an El Niño makes to the upward and downward atmospheric motion in the tropical regions, called a Walker Cell. It is especially sensitive to strong ENSO events. You can also atmospheric motion changes during a moderate versus a strong El Niño event, which impacts the global weather system through a strong atmospheric bridge. A strong or extreme El Niño causes a pressure drop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a high-pressure zone over the western Pacific. This strongly impacts tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, which then filter into the mid-latitudes and the global weather system. You can actually see this in the analysis below, which shows this change in the atmospheric flow for the last 15 days. It shows strong rising air motion in the central and eastern Pacific (blue) over the El Niño area. A strong sinking motion (red) was detected in the Maritime area, showing a highly modified Walker Cell and a clear Super El Niño-related atmospheric signal. Overall, this confirms a strong Super El Niño signature in the atmosphere, set up for the 2026/2027 season. It is also clearly visible in the daily weather patterns, and getting stronger toward Winter, as you will see in the November forecast.