Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

Climate scientists have issued warnings that a strong El Niño event developing in 2026 could exacerbate global climate extremes, including wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, and flooding. Expected to emerge as early as this month, this natural Pacific Ocean warming phenomenon is anticipated to occur against the backdrop of rising global temperatures driven by human-induced climate change. Experts predict that the combination of El Niño and ongoing warming could push 2026 to become one of the warmest years on record, potentially surpassing previous temperature highs linked to El Niño events. El Niño is a cyclical climate pattern characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which influences weather worldwide. While the phenomenon itself is natural, scientists emphasize that its impacts are intensified by the warmer baseline caused by fossil fuel emissions and global warming. Professor Friederike Otto of Imperial College London highlighted that the severity of weather extremes during El Niño events is now amplified by climate change, increasing the risk of unprecedented heat and extreme weather conditions globally. The World Meteorological Organization is expected to provide updated forecasts later this month to help governments and communities prepare for potential impacts. Already in 2026, extreme weather events have been notable, with record-high sea surface temperatures and the second-lowest Arctic sea ice extent recorded in April. The United States experienced a historic heatwave in March, which researchers say would have been nearly impossible without climate change. Additionally, the wildfire season has started with significant outbreaks in regions such as Western Africa, the Sahel, India, Southeast Asia, and China, contributing to the largest global burned area recorded for the January-April period. The anticipated strong El Niño could further intensify wildfire risks, particularly in Australia, North America, and the Amazon rainforest, where hot and dry conditions are expected to worsen. Scientists warn that this could lead to more frequent and severe fires, compounding the challenges posed by climate change. These developments underscore the urgent need for enhanced climate resilience and adaptation strategies worldwide to mitigate the growing risks associated with climate extremes.