Severe Weather Forecast / Outlook for Europe – July 26th, 2026

Severe weather outlook – forecast across Europe. This forecast features areas of organized severe weather with risk levels and severe weather threats across the European continent. SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK   Valid: 26/07/2026 06 UTC – 27/07/2026 06 UTC Issued by: Severe Weather Europe Forecaster: Marko Korošec SUMMARY   A significant severe weather outbreak is forecast across the north-central Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea region on Sunday. Strong instability and highly sheared environments combine for widespread thunderstorm activity with large to giant hail, severe winds, tornadoes, and flash flood potential. A large upper-level trough has established over northern Europe, with a strong blocking High over the Atlantic. Over the Mediterranean region, the secondary wave moves across Italy as the subtropical ridge to the south shifts further east. This wave results in a widespread severe weather outbreak for north-central Italy and a portion of the Adriatic Sea where volatile environmental conditions combine. Severe thunderstorms will support severe, damaging winds, large to very large (or even giant, 10+ cm) hail, a few tornadoes, and especially intense, excessive rainfall with a flooding threat. This outlook focuses on Sunday’s evolution, when a significant severe weather event is from the Ligurian Bay across the north-central Apennines into the Adriatic Sea as the upper wave emerges over the Alps towards the northern Mediterranean. Robust thunderstorms are expected from the early morning hours across northern Italy and intensify towards the Adriatic throughout the day. Above: Video animation of the convective storm’s development across the Mediterranean from Sunday morning through Monday morning, July 26th to 27th, 2026. For this reason, HIGH + MDT risks have been placed across portions of Italy and the Adriatic Sea, with highlighted areas where the most robust severe weather threat will develop on Sunday. The threat includes enhanced potential for severe damaging winds, flash floods, tornadoes, and very large to giant hail (6-10 cm or larger).   SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW   A deep upper-level low centered over northern Europe remains almost stationary on Sunday, locked in between two strong upper ridges over the North Atlantic and Russia. Further south, a secondary wave moves across central Europe towards the east. This will establish a typical volatile setup for the north Mediterranean region. At the surface, an extensive and deep low-pressure system is centered along western Norway, with a secondary low forming in the northern Mediterranean in response to the upper wave moving into the region aloft. This results in a frontal system entering Italy, with the cold front moving west to east across the Alps and northern Mediterranean into the Adriatic Sea and western Balkans on Sunday.