Should Burnham dash for an early election?

High on the Burnham bounce, calling an early election could be a temption proposition. But the Prime Minister should heed caution, writes Eliot Wilson The reign of Reform UK at the top of the opinion polls is over. Earlier this month, a survey 24 per cent. Reform were second with 22 per cent and the Conservatives a close third on 21 per cent. The last poll conducted when Sir Keir Starmer was Prime Minister had Reform 24 per cent, Labour and the Conservatives 19 per cent. Andy Burnham will know this and know the question he faces: should he call a general election? Labour’s “Burnham bounce” is modest, a tiny jostling within the electoral peloton, but a month ago most pollsters would probably have predicted Nigel Farage’s teal-accented Estado Novo winning the next election or emerging as the largest party. Now the direction of travel might be changing. Polling is not an exact science, because it relies on data supplied by humans. As the advertising genius David Ogilvy is supposed to have said, “people don’t think what they feel, they don’t say what they think and they don’t do what they say”. The raw results then have to be interpreted and applied, and this falls to a rare breed of shaman who cannot explain how they do what they do. Looking at the data, they rely on an eerie kind of fingerspitzengefühl, a fingertip sensitivity which marks out individuals like Philip Gould, Michael Ashcroft, Deborah Mattinson, Stan Greenberg and Frank Luntz. The numbers may be the same, but each expert can arrange them differently to tell a new story. But they remain the best guide we have. The advantages and risks of an early election To be clear on one point: Burnham has no obligation, constitutionally, legally or according to precedent, to hold an election. Governing parties can and do change their leaders during the course of a Parliament. Just in the period since the War, it has happened in 1955, 1957,1963, 1976, 1990, 2007, 2016, 2019, 2022 (twice) and now 2026. It may not be a requirement under the constitution or the law, but there can be advantages to holding an election shortly after you take power. Sir Anthony Eden succeeded Winston Churchill in April 1955, announced an election 10 days later and increased the Conservative majority by 23 seats. He also won the biggest share of the vote for any post-War party, a tantalising 49.7 per cent. But he thought he had escaped from the long shadow cast .