The Iran War’s Threat to Turkey

Turkey finds itself navigating a complex and precarious position amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Despite deep-seated mistrust and rivalry, particularly as both countries back opposing factions in regional conflicts across Iraq, Syria, and the South Caucasus, Ankara does not seek a decisive Iranian defeat. Turkish officials fear that the collapse or fragmentation of Iran would destabilize the region further, potentially triggering a refugee crisis, emboldening Kurdish separatist movements, and increasing volatility along Turkey’s eastern border. Since the outbreak of protests in Iran earlier this year and the subsequent war escalation, Turkey has maintained a cautious stance, refraining from openly criticizing Tehran’s crackdown on demonstrators and urging the United States to pursue diplomatic solutions to prevent Iranian state collapse. Although Turkey acknowledges the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities by U.S. and Israeli military actions, Ankara is more concerned about the hardening of Iran’s regime under the Revolutionary Guards, which has diminished prospects for pragmatic political engagement and increased the regime’s authoritarian grip. Turkey’s preferred outcome remains a stable but constrained Iran, governed by a durable agreement akin to the 2015 nuclear deal, which would impose verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. Such a framework would align with Turkey’s strategic interests by reducing the risk of renewed conflict, curbing Iranian influence in the Caucasus, and facilitating trade routes through the South Caucasus into Central Asia. Moreover, easing sanctions on Iran could enhance Turkey’s role as a primary economic partner, bolstering its regional economic standing. The conflict also highlights challenges on the Kurdish front, where Turkey’s fragile peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) faces renewed strain amid the broader regional instability. The ongoing turmoil in Iran and its border areas risks exacerbating Kurdish separatist tensions, complicating Ankara’s security calculations and efforts to maintain internal stability. Overall, Turkey’s approach reflects a delicate balancing act between containing Iranian influence and preventing regional chaos that could directly threaten its national security.