The Long Shadow of the Iran Shock

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, August 2026 Reuters JASON BORDOFF is Founding Director of the Center on Global Energy Policy and Professor of Professional Practice at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. During the Obama administration, he served as Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change on the staff of the National Security Council. O’SULLIVAN is Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. Bush administration, she served as Deputy National Security Adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan. O’Sullivan Listen unlock this feature or Sign in. Share & Download Print unlock this feature or Sign in. Save Sign in and save to read later Copy This is a subscriber-only feature. or Sign in. Chicago MLA APSA APA Chicago Cite not available at the moment MLA Cite not available at the moment APSA Cite not available at the moment APA Cite not available at the moment This is a subscriber-only feature. or Sign in. The past five months have revealed not that the world has become immune to energy crises but that market forces, policy, and government investments in energy security have paid off. Without renewed efforts to rebuild, in today’s geopolitically fractured world that resilience will quickly erode. Before a next phase of this crisis unfolds, therefore, policymakers must analyze how this resilience came to be. Moreover, they must acknowledge that, as the energy system has changed since the 1970s, so too has the way energy shocks reverberate around the world, and the measures needed to safeguard against them. Understanding these dynamics will better position the world for the next inevitable energy shock. WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN When Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz days after U. S. and Israeli attacks in late February, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) called it the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” But even as the strait remained almost entirely closed for nearly four months—until Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June—Brent crude averaged just over $100 per barrel, up from around $70 per barrel when the war began. The peak of $126 per barrel, in April, was far below the $200 per barrel that veteran analysts had warned was possible. Even after Tehran closed the strait to oil traffic again in July, after the cease-fire collapsed, the barrel price fell into the $80 range.