The War in Ethiopia Isn’t Over

Ethiopia continues to face deep instability despite the formal end of the Tigray conflict in 2022. The war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) erupted in 2020 over Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s push to centralize authority and dismantle the country’s ethno-federal system. While the Pretoria Agreement officially halted hostilities, implementation has been slow, with ongoing delays in transitional justice, accountability, and the return of displaced persons. Political tensions remain high, particularly after the national election board barred the TPLF from participating in the 2026 elections, favoring an Abiy-aligned party in Tigray. The conflict’s roots lie in Abiy’s vision to replace Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism with a centralized Prosperity Party, which alienated many who supported regional autonomy. This shift intensified ethnic divisions and prompted armed resistance, especially in Tigray, where the TPLF remains committed to federalism. The political landscape has further fragmented as internal divisions within the TPLF have led to clashes between the Tigray Defense Forces and a splinter group aligned with the federal government. These developments underscore the fragile nature of peace in the region and the challenges of reconciling competing political and ethnic interests. Recent incidents, including a drone strike blamed on federal forces and the redeployment of troops near Tigray, have heightened fears of renewed violence. In April, the TPLF reestablished the prewar regional government, sidelining the interim administration recognized by Addis Ababa. This move signals ongoing resistance to federal authority and complicates efforts to stabilize the region. With political grievances mounting and neighboring countries also involved in the broader Horn of Africa dynamics, Ethiopia’s path to lasting peace remains uncertain, raising concerns about the potential for further conflict escalation.