Too hot for work: why extreme heat is a threat to Europe’s productivity

Canary Wharf station in east London. Workers across the UK and Europe have faced sweltering offices and disrupted commutes. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA View image in fullscreen Canary Wharf station in east London. Workers across the UK and Europe have faced sweltering offices and disrupted commutes. There is now a growing acceptance that increasing spells of extreme heat have a significant impact on productivity and threaten Europe’s already sluggish economies. Economists warn that the climate crisis will dent economic growth unless European countries adapt their ageing buildings and infrastructure. Robert Marks, the lead climate economist at Oxford Economics, said temperatures in the high 30s and low 40s would “likely lead to substantial productivity losses and directly disrupt labour across construction, agriculture, manufacturing, retail and hospitality and other sectors which are unable to provide a protected work environment”. “These sectors represent 27% of economic activity in the UK and an average of 35% in western Europe,” he said. As a result, a four-day heatwave “could reduce quarterly labour productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points in the UK and up to two percentage points in the rest of western Europe”. The largest loss of working hours in western, northern and southern Europe by 2030 is expected to be felt , according to research . View image in fullscreen A construction worker in Wimbledon. The largest loss of working hours in western, northern and southern Europe is expected to be felt . Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/ShutterstockResearchers at the insurance group Allianz found extreme heat was emerging as a “structural economic risk” for Europe. They found France, Spain and Italy were among the European economies most exposed to the growing economic cost of heat stress (the UK was not included in the study). This was because productivity losses intensify sharply above a 30C threshold, while at the same time the cost of energy required to cool machinery and buildings rises. France could lose $240bn (£182bn) in economic output between 2026 and 2030 under the study’s stress scenario, followed by $147bn for Italy and $120bn for Spain, representing a cumulative loss of as much as 7% of gross domestic product. “The heatwave is not an exception, it is a direction,” said Katharina Utermöhl, the head of thematic and policy research at Allianz Investment Management and a co-author of the study. “Extreme heat costs all of us as workers, as businesses, as taxpayers, and there is a difference between countries that adapt and those that wait.