US wheat farmers navigate uncertainty amid drought and geopolitical chaos

Unharvested wheat in a field on in Beloit, Kansas. Photograph: Joshua A Bickel/AP View image in fullscreen Unharvested wheat in a field on in Beloit, Kansas. Photograph: Joshua A Bickel/AP US wheat farmers navigate uncertainty amid drought and geopolitical chaos Some experts worry factors affecting wheat exports could push global food prices even higher than they are now Wheat prices are at their highest level in three years, which means farmer Merrill Nielsen should be getting more for his crops out of his 2,500-acre (1,010-hectare) Kansas farm. Yet even as future prices for bread-type wheat are up 39%, Nielsen is unsure whether increased prices will raise his bottom line. The price of diesel fuel, which he needs to run his tractor, has hit record highs. Then there’s the erratic weather that made him lose his entire wheat crop in the spring, and drought has overtaken the southern Great Plains. “We’re not looking to plant any more wheat than we probably normally would, or maybe we won’t even plant that much. Really, we’ll have to the weather does for us,” Nielsen said. Panama canal traffic facing further cuts as drought from El Niño worsens The combination of high costs, poor weather and geopolitics leave US farmers such as Nielsen with an uncertain growing season despite higher prices for their yields. It also leaves consumers, from millers and bakers to restaurants and grocery shoppers, at risk of feeling the pinch. Droughts across the US and Europe have been shriveling harvests, and weather forecasts for a “super” El Niño this year means “there are some alarming signals” about the impact of weather on wheat crops, said Joao Lampreia, a market strategist at the Lisbon-based Freedom24. The weather phenomenon, exacerbated , causes warm waters to rise to the surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, along the coast of South America, and is known to imperil agriculture in the southern hemisphere significantly. Experts say wheat supplies in key exporting countries are at their second-lowest levels on record. Already, Australia’s wheat plantings are down 12% due to expectations of dryness and increased fertilizer costs. The good news for farmers and consumers is that El Niño can also bring wetter conditions for the southern Great Plains in the fall and spring. During the last big El Niño in 2015 and 2016, the US set an all-time record-high winter wheat yield, said Mark Welch, an economist who researches grain marketing at Texas A&M University.