Why We Know More About China’s Next-Generation Fighters Than America’s

Analysis As internet sleuthing replaces traditional intelligence collection, one big mystery about the PLA remains. , director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, and David Vallance, a research associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute. Representatives from Hong Kong University view a prototype of the domestic J-10A fighter jet at the Beijing Aviation Museum at Beihang University in Beijing, China, on June 1. Representatives from Hong Kong University view a prototype of the domestic J-10A fighter jet at the Beijing Aviation Museum at Beihang University in Beijing, China, on June 1. Hou Yu/China News Service/VCG via July 10, 2026, AM China’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile on July 6 took many by surprise. But amid the confusion about what the test signified, an interesting conversation was occurring. Was the missile a JL-2 or a JL-3? That open-source analysts were asking this question is a testament to just how much technical information about the People’s Liberation Army is now available to researchers. The Cold War is often invoked as a comparison to U. S.-China relations today, but the massive Soviet military machine had to be monitored through a much darker and blurrier lens than China’s buildup. The old ways of intelligence collection have not been entirely superseded; astonishingly, modern versions of the U-2 spy planes that undertook perilous reconnaissance missions over the Soviet Union still serve with the U. But traditional tools of intelligence collection on foreign military forces are now being heavily supplemented . China’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile on July 6 took many by surprise. But amid the confusion about what the test signified, an interesting conversation was occurring. Was the missile a JL-2 or a JL-3? That open-source analysts were asking this question is a testament to just how much technical information about the People’s Liberation Army is now available to researchers. The Cold War is often invoked as a comparison to U. S.-China relations today, but the massive Soviet military machine had to be monitored through a much darker and blurrier lens than China’s buildup. The old ways of intelligence collection have not been entirely superseded; astonishingly, modern versions of the U-2 spy planes that undertook perilous reconnaissance missions over the Soviet Union still serve with the U. But traditional tools of intelligence collection on foreign military forces are now being heavily supplemented . Intelligence collection and analysis were once the exclusive purview of governments and research institutions.