World can no longer avoid exceeding 1.5C threshold - UN

Updated / Wednesday, Getty A significant overshoot of the temperature limit is now unavoidable, according to the UN report George Lee 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new UN report. Decades of inadequate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions mean that a significant overshoot of the temperature limit is now unavoidable. The international community faces the much greater challenge of limiting the extent and duration of further warming and eventually bringing global temperatures back down. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has said global emissions would now need to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, to keep warming to the lowest achievable overshoot of 1.5C. However, even if governments fully implement their existing national climate commitments, emissions are expected to decline by just 11% to 15% by 2035. The findings are contained in UNEP's annual Emissions Gap Report 2026, entitled The Point of Return, published ahead of next month's COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. COP31 will take place in Antalya, Turkey, next month The report concludes that the lowest achievable overshoot scenario would see global temperatures peak at between 1.7C and 1.8C above the threshold around the middle of this century. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world could no longer avoid overshooting 1.5C but insisted this did not mean abandoning the Paris Agreement's temperature ambitions. "Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible - and bring temperatures back below 1.5C [above pre-industrial levels] before the end of the century," he said. Mr Guterres said the necessary emissions reductions would amount to almost 6% every year until 2035. "The emissions gap is now a leadership gap," he said. "And the world is running out of time and excuses to close it." UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the overshoot is 'not surrender' UNEP estimates that a continuation of existing government climate policies would result in global warming reaching approximately 2.8C this century. Even if countries fully implement their national climate pledges, warming would still reach approximately 2.6C. Both projections have deteriorated since last year's assessment, partly because of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and revisions to historical emissions estimates. UNEP says new climate commitments submitted a negligible difference to the projected temperature outcome. Even under its most optimistic scenario, in which all national pledges and additional long-term net-zero commitments are achieved, warming would still reach approximately 2.1C. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree of warming, and every additional year spent above the 1.5C threshold, increased the risk of severe climate impacts. "So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5C .