World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis

Despite concerns that geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict might trigger a significant global resurgence in coal use, experts indicate that the world is unlikely to see a major return to coal in 2026. While some countries have increased coal consumption as a short-term response to energy security challenges, the overall trend remains focused on transitioning away from fossil fuels. This assessment reflects ongoing commitments to climate goals and the growing competitiveness of renewable energy sources. The Iran crisis has heightened uncertainties in global energy markets, particularly affecting natural gas supplies and prices. Gas remains a key driver of electricity costs in many regions, including the UK, where expensive gas prices have contributed to elevated energy bills. However, despite these pressures, coal’s share in the global energy mix is not expected to rise substantially, as governments and industries prioritize cleaner alternatives and invest in energy efficiency and renewables. This outlook aligns with broader international policy efforts aimed at reducing carbon emissions and advancing the energy transition. While coal-fired power plants still operate in several countries, their role is increasingly challenged by environmental regulations and market forces favoring low-carbon technologies. The situation underscores the complex interplay between geopolitical events, energy security, and climate action, highlighting the need for resilient and sustainable energy systems. In summary, although the Iran conflict has introduced volatility in energy markets, it is unlikely to reverse the global momentum away from coal. The focus remains on balancing immediate energy needs with long-term climate commitments, reinforcing the importance of diversifying energy sources and accelerating the shift toward cleaner power generation.