UAE's departure from the OPEC oil cartel is not without precedence. Who could be next?

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has sent ripples through global energy markets, highlighting growing tensions within the cartel. The UAE’s departure follows recent missile and drone attacks and disruptions to exports via the Strait of Hormuz, which have pressured the country’s oil-dependent economy. Producing about 2.37 million barrels per day in March, the UAE has expressed frustration with OPEC’s production quotas that limit its ability to fully utilize its sustainable capacity of approximately 4.3 million barrels per day. This move is not unprecedented; other members such as Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola have exited OPEC in recent years due to similar grievances over production restrictions or shifting national priorities. Angola left in 2024, while Qatar withdrew in 2019. Analysts warn that the UAE’s departure could encourage other members dissatisfied with quota constraints to reconsider their membership, potentially undermining OPEC’s influence as a cohesive cartel. Uneven compliance with production limits has long been a challenge for OPEC, with countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan historically exceeding their quotas. Market experts have identified several “flight risk” countries that might follow the UAE’s lead. Kazakhstan, noted for persistent overproduction, and Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, are among those under scrutiny. Nigeria’s growing focus on domestic refining, particularly through the Dangote refinery, reduces its reliance on crude exports and diminishes the incentive to adhere to OPEC’s supply curbs. This shift toward maximizing downstream returns rather than supporting global crude prices could prompt Nigeria to reconsider its membership. Venezuela, with its recovering output, is also mentioned as a potential candidate to exit. The UAE’s departure underscores a broader challenge facing OPEC: balancing the interests of members with varying production capacities and economic strategies. As some countries seek greater autonomy to expand output or prioritize domestic processing, the cartel’s unity and ability to influence global oil markets may face increasing strain.